Navy / North Texas Over 61 2.2% play
Playing any service academy over the total is always a concern because they run the ball a ton and they play at a slow pace, but the spots I like to take the over is when they are playing a team that is poor against the run, have a capable offense, and play up tempo. North Texas is 31st in pace, they rank 38th in yards per play, and they rank 127th in yards per play defense, and are allowing opponents to score 21 points more than their season average. I think Navy can name their score here, and North Texas is definitely capable of scoring some points against this Navy defense. Dating back to last season the last 3 totals when Navy has faced teams that play this style the totals have been 74, 74, and 74 including their last game against South Florida. I think this one goes over the total as I see both teams getting into the 30s. Both of these defenses have struggled in red zone defense allowing over 70% touch downs, which will also help the total. For North Texas this is a new coaching staff, and the defensive coordinator Matt Caponi coached CB’s at Iowa State, and they did not face any service academies.
